AR World Championship Predictions
I’m saving some final thoughts on the World Championship race course for tomorrow, letting the 2 pieces from earlier this week (here and here) simmer. I’m turning my focus instead to the teams racing in this AR World Championship, and with 59 high quality teams and adventure racing being such an unpredicable endeavour . . . you must take any prediction with a healthy dose of salt.
Another complicating factor, and I’ll be honest with you here, is that half of these teams are unknown to me. The sport is truly global and in the absence of an international ranking mechanism (that I’m told Adventure World will be addressing as we move into 2010!), or an easier way to know the backgrounds of all the teams, it is very challenging to foresee who has the endurance, speed, and intelligence to claim the World Championship in Portugal. I’m not even mentioning injuries or bike mechanicals or any of the other factors at play on an adventure race course.
Beach running at XPD Portugal 2008
Before I get into my summary of teams to watch, I’ll offer you a chance to weigh-in and pick the results of the World Championship. Visit www.UntamedAdventure.com/ARWC to pick your top 10 teams, earn points for those you select correctly, and the winner of this “fantasy” adventure racing experiment will get some cool equipment from Ultimate Direction. Give it a shot and see if you can beat me at this — it’s a tough challenge to predict the outcome of an expedition adventure race! My precise picks won’t be unveiled until Sunday, but in the meantime I’ll offer up some food for thought.
Let me go down the official race roster from www.arwc2009.com/en/teams.php and touch on the teams that jump out at me. Going in the order of their official team race number . . .
Team # 1 is OrionHealth.com from New Zealand. They are the defending champions from 2008, and coming off a big win at PrimalQuest where they dominated the race. These Kiwis have to be considered amongst the most elite teams, and some feel they will repeat as champions. While I think OrionHealth.com has a good shot at winning in Portugal, and I definitely put them in my top 5 teams, I wonder how much expedition racing somebody can do in a year and they’ve been racing with intensity all season long. OrionHealth has had two months to recover from a grueling PrimalQuest victory, and have raced in China and elsewhere in the meantime . . . but at some point the long events catch up with you and “real” recovery time is so important. Bottom line: I’m not sure these Kiwis can be the fastest, smartest, and toughest team again in back-to-back years with the schedule they’ve had and against competition this good. Read their interview with Adventure World for more about this team.
Team #2 is Outdoor Experiences from France and they qualified by winning the XPD Portugal race back in 2008, organized by the staff who are organizing the World Championships this year. This team will be familiar with the terrain and distinct format of this Portugese race organization. While not as high profile as some other teams, they earned their entry to the World Championships for a reason and I’ll be keeping my eye on them.
Team #3 is Blackheart.com.au from Australia, and they won XPD Australia in 2008 to make it here. XPD Australia is a long and tough race, and this is an experienced team, so while I’m certain they can “handle” the course I’m not certain that the race style favors them. We’ll see what these Aussies can do!
Team #4 is Buff Thermocool from Spain; they’re racing with a homefield advantage and are going with an experienced lineup for the 2009 World Championships. I consider them an outsider to win the race, but I think they’ll certainly have a strong showing on their own turf.
Team #5 is OpavaNet/Tilak/Merida from the Czech Republic. They qualified in the only winter race in the AR World Series (Bergson Winter Challenge 2009 in Poland), so while their ski and snow skills are probably at the top of the list, I don’t really know what to expect from them in sunny southern Portugal. I don’t claim to be an encyclopedia of international AR teams, and this is one team that I’ll be paying attention to for the first time starting on Sunday.
Team #6 is Multisport.fi from Finland and is looking to be a force to be reckoned with at this race. According to a Swedish “expert” I consulted, he commented that Multisport.fi “plowed through the Bimbache Extrem this year at an almost unprecedented pace, destroying the rest of the field.” This Finnish team is led by Scandinavian AR legend, Petri Forsman, and I have them in my top 5.
Trekking at XPD Portugal 2008
Team #7 is Quechua from France and are probably the best of the Western European teams (I’m not counting Scandinavia in there). France is mad for adventure racing, with events nearly every weekend, and this Quechua team is the cream of the crop from this multisport-crazed culture. Quechua is a very experienced and fast team that just had to hop in a car for a few hours of driving to get to these World Championships in Portugal. Besides being fast and smart, this should be a well-rested team and at the end of a long season this could make all the difference. Quechua is in my top 5.
Team #8 is Lundhags Adventure from Sweden — with a very important Kiwi, Aaron Prince, added for international spice. This team qualified for Portugal by winning the Explore Sweden “Monster” race and did so with a flawless combination of strategy and endurance. While still a relatively young team, Lundhags has what it takes to succeed at this elite level and with the reknowned navigational strength of Aaron Prince, Lundhags is surely one to keep an eye on.
Team #9 is ATP/Salomon from Canada and the United States. This team qualified by winning Untamed New England, and did it in commanding fashion. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t pulling for this team, since I know their navigator Scott Pleban well . . . and I think they can achieve a top 10 result against this field of elite teams. The tougher the navigation and bushwhack, the better for these North Americans! Be sure to check out their audio interview with Untamed Adventure’s Jason Reed over at www.UntamedAdventure.com/arpodcast.aspx.
Now that I’ve touched on the teams racing who won their qualifying races, and are the obvious top dogs at the race, let me cover a few other teams . . .
Team #12 is Team Kinetic from Canada. 2nd place in New England got them to Portugal, and they’re a committed team who race as smart as they do strong. I think a top 15 finish for them would be a great result, and I’ll be cheering for them as they’re wearing green Untamed New England jerseys at the race. There is also an audio interview with them at www.UntamedAdventure.com/arpodcast.aspx.
Team #18 is nuun-FeedTheMachine, a team from the United States who finished an impressive 6th at the World Championships last year in Brazil. This is a fast team . . . really fast . . . but I don’t know how they can do better than 6th with a field of teams as tough as this. I interviewed their captain a month or so back, and I would love to see them improve upon their 2008 result.
Team #20 is ERTips from France, and they raced strong at the World Championships in Brazil in 2008. This is another good team with essentially a homefield advantage, so keep an eye on them.
Team #31 is NYARA, from the United States. They’ve raced some big events over the years, but this is their first time racing a World Championship race. I don’t think they’re looking for a podium finish so much as they’re going to soak up the experience and enjoy the challenge. They can race fast and smart, so I’m hoping they have a great race and finish with smiles on their faces.
Team #32 is Berlin Bike / Hurley Metal Fab, another East Coast team from the United States. I’ve seen the checkered Berlin Bike jerseys at American races for years now, and it will be cool to see them in Europe. I also place Berlin Bike in the “going for the fun of it” category when the level of competition is as high as it in Portugal. Just the same, I’m sure their excited to compete against the best of the world and see how they stack up.
Team #44 is Cyanosis from South Africa. They’ve had this race circled on their calendar for years, literally, and they raced previous versions of the XPD Portugal to prepare them for the format, style, and terrain of race they would find at these World Championships. Read their interview on Adventure World at www.adventureworldmagazineonline.com/news/ar-world-series-interview-with-team-cyanosis-south-africa.
Team #46 is Nike/Beaver Creek, the powerhouse team from the United States. They recovered from injuries instead of racing the grueling PrimalQuest event in August, and should have extra reserves when the going gets tough in Portugal. I’d be foolish not to rank them in my top 5, as they’ve demonstrated such a knack for excelling against the best of the best.
This “summary” is getting awfully long, and while there are many great teams I’ve not touched on (I’m looking at those other French and Swedish teams, in particular), I need to wrap this up.
If you want to try your hand at predicting the World Championships, head over to www.UntamedAdventure.com/ARWC and make your own selections . . .
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